Republicans favored in latest generic congressional ballot test: Rasmussen

Republicans are still leading Democrats in Rasmussen’s generic ballot test. We reference Rasmussen’s data because his is the most realistic polling model out there. Scott Rasmussen polls likely voters, just as we at Encompass do for our clients, as opposed to all adults, as other media outlets such as CNN, AP and Gallup do.

This week’s latest generic congressional ballot test polling numbers from Rasmussen Reports, one of the most accurate regular national pollsters:

Republican candidate for congress: 41%
Democrat candidate for congress: 39%

Republican numbers have been between 41% and 44% in the generic ballot test since June vs. 36% to 40% for Democrats. This is a dramatic switch from last year at this time when Republicans ranged between 34% to 37% vs. 45% to 48%.

Independents favor GOP candidates over Democratic ones 41% to 24%. This is a significant hurdle for the Democratic Party to overcome before the mid-term elections.

If these trends continue, 2010 will be a rough election cycle for the Democratic Party, despite what their PR machine tells you. One hiccup for Republicans, among a few, is that both Parties are generally viewed unfavorably when asked about the job they are doing in congress. So while polling shows that voters are not swallowing the Democrats’ ultra-liberal agenda, and are in fact, rebelling from it, Republicans have some work to do to capture the voters’ angst and turn it into a sustainable lead heading into 2010. More on this later…