The Hunt for Red, in October: Part 2

GOP: Now the Bad News
Can the GOP handle any more bad news after four straight years of bad news? Given that a number of recent polls show Republicans benefitting from a change in the voters’ mood since the 2008 elections, a little more bad news can serve to keep Republicans sharp and focused.

While voters trust Republicans on ten major issues (see Part 1) over Democrats, polling data suggests the Republican base is still unhappy with the GOP.

According to Rasmussen Reports, 73% of Republican primary voters think “Republicans in Congress lost touch with Republican voters throughout the nation.”

This suggests that the GOP still has a tremendous amount of work to do in order to unify the party. To say there is a PR problem is an understatement.

Furthermore, while voters give Democrats low marks for their work in congress (as well as mediocre approval ratings for President Obama), only 15% of primary Republican voters believe “Republicans in Congress have done a good job of representing Republican values.”

Clearly, Republicans are benefitting more from fear of what the liberal Obama Administration and congressional leadership might do next rather than from anything special the GOP is offering up thus far. Which is fine; it’s a great start and foundation to build on, and it offers a fantastic opportunity to reconnect with voters.

Meanwhile, Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steel is viewed “Very” or “Somewhat” favorably by only 39% of Republican voters. 27% view him “Very” or “Somewhat” unfavorably and 35% aren’t sure.

During the 2008 campaign, there was, and still is, an ongoing public debate among Republicans over the direction of the party. A number of Republican consultants and commentators/pundits have gone so far as to say Reaganomics is dead. They have essentially suggested becoming something similar to European right of center parties and abandon issues that have worked for the GOP in the past.

The real problem, from our point of view, is that in recent years the GOP has drifted from its core values, and, with the poll numbers just cited as evidence, we aren’t the only ones who think this.

We take the data to mean voters are hungry for fresh ideas, ideas that directly counter the lurch to the left by the Democratic leadership, without compromising core Republican principles.

This means coming up with an agenda that is uniquely different from the Democrats’, right down to the slogans employed. Right now is a great time to re-awaken the Reagan optimism that put our country, and the GOP, back on track. The hunt continues.

The Hunt for Red, in October: Part 1

GOP: First, the Good News

It must feel good for Republican leadership to have their party back on top – on the issues anyhow. Voters now trust Republicans more than Democrats on ten key issues that the Rasmussen Report follows and polls regularly.

This is a big change for the Republican Party and its hunt for a renewed identity following the drubbing that Republican candidates have taken in the past two federal election cycles.

After borrowing and spending billions under President Bush, Republicans have regained the voters’ trust especially on taxes, holding a 15 percentage point lead on that issue. The other issues with double digit leads for the GOP, as the accompanying chart shows, are the economy, abortion, national security and Iraq.

Only weeks ago, Republicans did not have a complete sweep on these 10 issues, and on others, their leads were much tighter. As we have noted before, Republicans are the beneficiaries of a clear change in voters’ mood from the 2008 elections.

Momentum is in full-swing in the GOP’s favor. Whether Republicans can harness this momentum, maintain and grow these numbers and benefit materially from them (i.e. score legislative victories and win elections), we will have to wait and see.

One way for Republicans to do it is to formulate a well thought out and researched platform and move as a unit, with all members in congress on the same page. Staying true to core values that the GOP has drifted from in recent years is essential to this (see previous posts on the issues voters care about), as is strong and focused leadership.

President Obama Still Struggling in the Polls

Even CNN has covered the incredible shrinking polling numbers for President Obama. We've documented it here, and in Rasmussen's latest Presidential job approval numbers, Obama is still in negative territory - not just with voters who strongly approve vs. those who strongly disapprove, but with voters overall.


Generally Approve: 47%
Generally Disapprove: 53%

Strongly Approve: 26%
Strongly Disapprove: 39%

Ouch. From lofty numbers to being underwater inside a year, one would think Obama's team could use a pitching change. But since my Dodgers lost, I'm moving on to football analogies: the Administration could at least use a huddle. It’s difficult to say what’s going on inside the Administration with its brain trust, but suffice it to say that this mid-term election campaign is in trouble.

Mid-term election campaign? Already? Yep. When you are governing, you really are campaigning by other means, to paraphrase an old political hand. And right now Obama's polling numbers are not good. Nancy Pelosi's are even worse and much of the Democrat agenda is not popular. All of this will affect how voters decide who to vote for in the 2010 mid-term elections: Republican or Democrat candidates for congress.

The Obama team’s strategy has been to run aggressively with their agenda, continuing the promise of significant change on a whole range of important federal policies. This has been a multi-pronged strategy on all fronts, a sort of all out blitz to overwhelm and win.

Based on their actions, the Administration believes voters support all or most of Obama’s agenda and therefore they will go for all of it at once. Obama wants to be a hugely transformative president and he believes either voters are on-board or they will be convinced he needs to do what he’s doing soon enough.

Team Obama’s problem is that they are misinterpreting election data and the voters’ mood. Yes, voters gave Democrats a strong majority in congress, and yes, voters said “NO” to John McCain. However, polling data on the major issues Obama is pushing shows that voters do not support the biggest aspects of his agenda.

Voters oppose Obama’s attempts to reform the health care industry. Voters say they do not want to see higher taxes. Voters are against any second attempt at a stimulus package. 53% oppose more regulation in the financial industry. 31% agree with Obama’s decision to yank the missile shield from east European countries while 38% disagree. 51% of voters say Obama has not been tough enough with Iran. Only 34% of voters think the first stimulus helped the economy and 45% of voters think the unspent money from the first stimulus should be canceled while 36% disagree.

The exclamation point to all this is that only 34% of voters say the country is headed in the right direction. If voters wanted to see Obama push his liberal agenda, they are certainly seeing it, and if they liked it, more than 34% would believe we are headed in the right direction.

The bad economy and high unemployment rate certainly wears on the ruling Party, and their attempt to pin all the problems on Bush are not paying off in the polls. Obama has one heck of a sales job ahead of him.

Republicans Take Big Lead in Generic Ballot Test

And the numbers keep coming in big for Republicans, mostly due to a major disconnect from the Democratic Party to the American people. This week’s latest generic congressional ballot test polling numbers from Rasmussen Reports, shows Republicans with a big lead:

Republican candidate for congress: 42%
Democrat candidate for congress: 37%

Republican numbers have been between 41% and 44% in the generic ballot test since June vs. 36% to 40% for Democrats. Independents by a significant margin favor the theoretical GOP candidate over the theoretical Democrat one by 40% to 23%.

Again, with most voters showing they have not accepted the agenda of the Democratic Party, as manifested in these ongoing generic ballot test numbers, Republicans have an opportunity around the country, with or without leadership's help (Michael Steele is viewed favorably by only 39% of Republicans, a number he could and should improve on) to sieze on the voter discontent we see around the nation.

How does a candidate do this? By coming out early as the "spokesperson" for their respective district or state, a candidate can identify with the unhappy voters on key issues. By touring their district or state and holding forums, candidates can show they are listening to the voters rather than pushing an agenda on them.

More importantly, candidates can begin offering a positive alternative agenda from the liberal, Nancy Pelosi-controlled congress. Voters respond to positive messages, particularly those that contrast so nicely with the liberal lurch to the left we are witnessing right now. If a GOP candidate finds his or her "voice", they will see resonance with the voters and have an opportunity to build early momentum. This can be a winning strategy especially if the candidate is locked in a tough primary. Primary voters will identify first with that candidate who reaches out to them as just described and start lining up behind their candidacy.

In a sense, the candidate needs to become the district or state's local Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity or Glenn Beck and lead an insurgency campaign against their incumbent Democrat. This is a good strategy even in open safe Republican seats that have healthy competition. If you want to stand out, start differentiating yourself now and show you are the leader in the area on the issues that matter.

We'll have some pointers on how to go about communicating with use of cable TV, broadcast TV, radio, direct mail and digital media (online, email, texts, twitter, etc.) in future posts.

Obama Slips Some More

This is a quick update from the previous story two days ago in which we related to you that President Obama is underwater in the Rasmussen poll. Today, President Obama slipped even further.

President Obama’s Job Approval Rating:

Total Approve: 47%
Total Disapprove: 51%

President Obama has been mostly underwater in Rasmussen’s polls since late July. His lowest total approval number since July was 45%, which he hit on September 1.

It is also worth pointing out that his strong approval vs. strong disapproval numbers are in the low double digits at -11. 28% of voters strongly approve of the job President Obama is doing vs. 39% who strongly disapprove. In the span since late July, these numbers were as bad as -14 when 27% approved of President Obama’s job performance vs. 41% who disapproved on August 23.

With upside-down numbers after a meteoric start to his presidency, one has to wonder, when will President Obama’s advisors change their approach? What makes them think their popularity will improve by continuing to do the same thing, i.e. pursuing policies Americans do not support? Ditto for Speaker Pelosi.

We will analyze further in upcoming posts, but trust us, their numbers on a range of issues aren’t pretty. The GOP has a golden opportunity to seize the day.

Obama Underwater in Rasmussen Poll

Approval ratings for President Obama are not good in the latest Rasmussen poll. 49% approve and 50% disapprove. Rasmussen’s poll should be viewed as the leading indicator of reality (think election-day) since he polls likely voters.

Other polls, such as Gallup, CBS News, AP and others do not poll likely voters. Instead, they poll all adults, many of whom will not vote (especially in the upcoming 2010 mid term elections) and who tend to favor the Democratic Party. Nonetheless, all polls are in harmony showing a big drop in recent months for President Obama’s job approval.

The numbers to watch closely are the unaffiliated voters. By 63% to 37% these independent voters disapprove of the job President Obama is doing. These voters, who make up about 30% of the electorate nationally right now, will play a large roll in mid term congressional elections.

Generic Ballot Test Trends: Why Dems Losing Appeal

To the left is a table showing the trend of the generic congressional ballot test going back to late last year (pardon the micro type, I will upload clearer versions in the future). This data is from Rasmussen Reports, which uses the most realistic, and most predictive, methodology of surveying likely voters. Surveying likely voters is the same approach we at Encompass use for our clients.

Note that it didn’t take long for the Democrats’ lead to fade. From our perspective, and based on other polling data, this is because Democrats have shifted so heavily to the left. Voters may vote for change, but that doesn’t mean they’ve bought into an entire ideology.

We are still a capitalist, free market society that holds freedom (economic and political) near and dear to our hearts, and are distrustful of government bureaucracy.

The lesson being learned here is that voters in 2008 were voting at least as much against George Bush as they were for new direction. There has not been a radical realignment of voters’ fundamental belief system.

Under the very liberal leadership of Speaker Pelosi, and the authentically liberal President Obama, the Democratic Party has lurched so heavily to the left that their numbers have fallen off a cliff in a matter of months.

We will delve more into this subject as it unfolds, and offer more in-depth analysis of what is going on politically around the country right now.

Republicans favored in latest generic congressional ballot test: Rasmussen

Republicans are still leading Democrats in Rasmussen’s generic ballot test. We reference Rasmussen’s data because his is the most realistic polling model out there. Scott Rasmussen polls likely voters, just as we at Encompass do for our clients, as opposed to all adults, as other media outlets such as CNN, AP and Gallup do.

This week’s latest generic congressional ballot test polling numbers from Rasmussen Reports, one of the most accurate regular national pollsters:

Republican candidate for congress: 41%
Democrat candidate for congress: 39%

Republican numbers have been between 41% and 44% in the generic ballot test since June vs. 36% to 40% for Democrats. This is a dramatic switch from last year at this time when Republicans ranged between 34% to 37% vs. 45% to 48%.

Independents favor GOP candidates over Democratic ones 41% to 24%. This is a significant hurdle for the Democratic Party to overcome before the mid-term elections.

If these trends continue, 2010 will be a rough election cycle for the Democratic Party, despite what their PR machine tells you. One hiccup for Republicans, among a few, is that both Parties are generally viewed unfavorably when asked about the job they are doing in congress. So while polling shows that voters are not swallowing the Democrats’ ultra-liberal agenda, and are in fact, rebelling from it, Republicans have some work to do to capture the voters’ angst and turn it into a sustainable lead heading into 2010. More on this later…